Week ending Friday, April 25, 2026 | Berk on Value | VAP Wealth Advisors
TL;DR
Five VAP holdings reported earnings this week. All five beat. Three got hammered anyway. The headline S&P 500 record close at 7,165 hides what is actually moving the tape.
- Intel printed a blowout Q1 , with Data Center & AI revenue up 22%, and dragged the entire semiconductor complex higher — the top five movers were all chips.
- Three VAP holdings — Medpace, Thermo Fisher, Accenture — beat earnings and still sold off double digits. Medpace’s book-to-bill of 0.88 tells the story: the market repriced the next eight quarters of growth, not the one that just printed.
- The FOMC meets April 28–29 with the policy rate at 3.50–3.75%. Watch one thing in the statement: does the Fed acknowledge $100 oil, or hold the line?
- Washington moved three things: DOJ dropped its Powell probe, Section 232 metals tariffs raised to 50% on full customs value, and the 100% pharmaceutical tariff is set for September 29, 2026.
- VAP one-year return: +37% vs. S&P +34.9%. The week was a coin flip. The year is the actual scoreboard for owners.
About the author
David Berkowitz runs the ValueAligned Portfolio (VAP) at VAP Wealth Advisors and produces free educational investing content under the Berk on Value brand. David has 40 years of experience as a hedge fund trader, stock analyst, portfolio manager, and corporate finance consultant. He invests for the next decade — not the next ten days. ValueAligned Partners, LLC is a registered investment advisor.
The headline says strength. The breadth says rotation.
The S&P 500 closed at a fresh record of 7,165 on April 25, up 0.5% on the week. The equal-weighted version slipped 0.6%. The Nasdaq 100 led the major indices and the Russell 2000 sits at +12.6% year-to-date.
That gap matters. The cap-weighted index hides who is doing the work. A diversified portfolio of quality compounders is well-positioned for 2026 — but only if you read the breadth, not the headline.
Three sectors up. Five down. The rotation is the same one we’ve seen for three months.
Winners of the week:
- Technology +3.8% — led by Intel and AMD
- Energy +3.4% — tracking Brent crude near $105 on Strait of Hormuz tension
- Consumer Staples +0.9% — small defensive bid late in the week
Losers:
- Healthcare −3.1%
- Communication Services −3.0%
- Financials −2.0%
- Real Estate and Consumer Discretionary rounded out the bottom
Money is rotating into AI infrastructure and commodity producers, away from rate-sensitive defensives and growth-multiple consumer names. That pattern has not broken.
Tech is no longer one trade. The chip you own and the software you license are on opposite ends of the same regime change.
Hardware operating margins sit at a record 31.7%. Hyperscalers are pouring billions into custom silicon. The chip cycle is bending up.
Software is being reorganized in real time around AI agents that need fewer seats. ServiceNow flagged deal delays. IBM’s growth slowed. Microsoft is offering voluntary buyouts. Meta is cutting 8,000 roles.
VAP owns AMD, NXP, ON Semi, and TSM on the hardware side. We own ServiceNow, Salesforce, and S&P Global on the software side. Same sector ETF, two completely different stories. We let the businesses earn through it.
The top five movers were all semiconductors
Intel +29.1%. AMD +24.9%. ON Semi +18.2%. Micron +14.7%. Marvell +13.8%. The entire semiconductor complex ran on Intel’s print.
Intel posted Q1 revenue of $13.6 billion with Data Center & AI up 22% and Foundry up 16%, removing the existential question that had hung over the company for three years.
AMD ran on its own AI accelerator order book, posting its longest winning streak in over 20 years. The position is up 270% from cost in VAP — that figure is internal portfolio data.
Five clean prints. Three sold off anyway. Here is what each one actually said.
Summary table:
| Company | Stock | EPS Result | Why The Tape Repriced It | VAP Action |
| Medpace (MEDP) | −21% | $4.28, beat $0.32 | Book-to-bill 0.88; cancellations highest in over a year | Bought more from the CSCO sale proceeds |
| Thermo Fisher (TMO) | −11% | $5.44, beat $0.20 | Q1 organic growth 1% vs. 3–4% guide; pharma tariff overhang | Hold; trades 19x forward |
| ServiceNow (NOW) | −7% | Beat all metrics | Multiple compressed from ~17x to ~9x sales | Hold; watch May 4 Analyst Day |
| Roper (ROP) | −2.5% | $5.16, beat $0.16 | Beat-and-raise + buyback ignored; multiple at 16x | Hold; thesis intact |
| Tesla (TSLA) | −6% | $0.41 EPS, beat | $25B+ capex push; FCF turns negative through 2026 | Hold the size we have |
Medpace (MEDP) — beat by $0.32, stock down 21%
EPS of $4.28 beat by $0.32. Revenue of $706.6 million grew 26.5% year-over-year. Margins held at 21.1%. Cash on the balance sheet sits at $653 million. The number that hurt was a net book-to-bill of 0.88, with cancellations at the highest level in over a year.
CEO August Troendle was direct on the call — cancellations were not from acute biotech funding stress, they were routine product reprioritization. Hold and reevaluate at the Q2 print in late July.
Thermo Fisher (TMO) — beat by $0.20, stock down 11%
EPS of $5.44, revenue of $11.01 billion up 6.2%, guidance raised to $47.3–48.1 billion. Two reasons for the sell-off: Q1 organic growth printed at 1% against a 3–4% full-year guide (forces back-half acceleration the buy side does not believe), and the pharma tariff overhang.
Thermo trades at 19x forward earnings — its lowest forward multiple since 2018, excluding the 2022 and 2023 lows. The thesis is intact. The price is testing every owner’s resolve.
ServiceNow (NOW) — beat all metrics, stock down 41% YTD
Q1 revenue of $3.77 billion up 22%, remaining performance obligation of $27.7 billion up 25%, best Q1 in company history. The multiple compressed from roughly 17x sales to about 9x sales.
CFO Gina Mastantuono pushed back: “We just beat and raised.” The Iran-war disruption hit subscription growth. Hold and watch the Financial Analyst Day in Las Vegas on May 4.
Roper Technologies (ROP) — beat-and-raise, stock down 2.5%
EPS of $5.16 beat by $0.16. Revenue $2.10 billion +11%, FCF $562 million, guidance raised to $21.80–22.05. Roper has repurchased 6 million shares for $2.2 billion since November and added a fresh $3 billion authorization.
ROP trades at 16x forward earnings, its lowest multiple in over a decade. Beat, raised, and bought back stock — and the tape ignored it. That is the regime.
Tesla (TSLA) — beat estimates, stock down 6%
EPS of $0.41 beat. Revenue $22.4 billion +16%, energy gross margin a record 39.5%, AI5 chip taped out. Robotaxi expanded to Dallas and Houston with zero incidents to date.
CFO Vaibhav Taneja told analysts the company is committing $25 billion-plus in capex with negative free cash flow for the rest of 2026. Translation: Tesla is asking the market to fund the AI and robotics pivot on the come. Tesla is a small position in VAP for that reason. Hold the size we have.
The economy is slowing. It is not breaking.
Services PMI sits around 52 (expansion). Manufacturing PMI sits just under 50. Jobless claims remain well below the historical average. Q4 2025 GDP printed a soft 0.5%. Q1 2026 is tracking near 1.5%.
On inflation, core PCE for February 2026 ran at 3.0% year-over-year — stuck above the Fed’s 2% target. Oil near $105 a barrel adds fresh pressure to the March print.
That mix keeps the Fed on hold. The FOMC meets Tuesday and Wednesday, April 28–29, with the policy rate at 3.50–3.75% since the January meeting. The 10-year Treasury sits near 4.31% with the curve at its steepest since 2021. Read one thing in next week’s statement: does the Fed acknowledge oil, or does the language stay steady?
Three Washington items moved markets this week
- The Department of Justice dropped its criminal probe of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, removing a tail risk that had been sitting under the long end of the bond market for two months.
- Section 232 metals tariffs are now flowing at 50% on full customs value with 25% on metal-heavy derivatives. Roper’s results and Thermo Fisher’s guide already cite tariffs as roughly 80 basis points of margin headwind.
- A 100% pharmaceutical tariff takes effect September 29, 2026 for most importers (July 31 for 17 named large pharma companies in Annex III). That is the single biggest reason Eli Lilly, Thermo Fisher, and Bristol Myers Squibb sold off this week.
The portfolio in three time frames
- Week: VAP +0.5% vs. S&P +0.6% — trail by 10 basis points
- Year-to-date: VAP +1.5% vs. S&P +5.1% — trail by 3.6 points (narrow leadership we don’t own much of)
- One year: VAP +37.0% vs. S&P +34.9% — ahead by 2 points
All portfolio performance figures are internal VAP composite returns. We do not run the portfolio against a benchmark. We never have. But we show you both. The week is a coin flip. The year is the actual scoreboard for owners.
Next week is the densest stretch on the calendar
- Monday April 28 — FOMC begins
- Wednesday April 29 — Fed decision and Powell press conference
- Thursday April 30 — Q1 GDP, March PCE inflation, Employment Cost Index
- Friday May 2 — April non-farm payrolls
- All week — Apple, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Merck, and Bristol Myers Squibb report earnings
Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon together carry a meaningful share of S&P market cap. Their AI capex commentary will reset the narrative. Read one specific data point on each call: does AI capex translate into real revenue, or is it still on the cost line?
Key takeaways
- The headline S&P gain hides poor breadth. Mega cap did the work. Equal weight fell on the week.
- Five VAP companies reported. Five beat. Three sold off. The price action repriced future growth durability — not the quarter that just printed.
- Quality compounders trading at decade-low multiples after beat-and-raise quarters is the regime. It ends. We don’t know when. The compounding doesn’t stop.
- The FOMC + GDP + PCE + mega cap earnings stack next week will reset Q2 leadership.
Own great companies. Pay reasonable prices. Give them time. That is the entire job.
Sources
- S&P 500 record close at 7,165 — Closing milestones of the S&P 500 — Wikipedia historical index milestone record. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Closing_milestones_of_the_S%26P_500
- Intel printed a blowout Q1 with Data Center & AI revenue up 22% — CNBC — Intel (INTC) Q1 2026 earnings report covering revenue, foundry, and DCAI segment performance. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/23/intel-intc-q1-2026-earnings-report.html
- Medpace’s book-to-bill of 0.88 — Seeking Alpha — Medpace sees $1.94B backlog conversion over next 12 months as cancellations rise. https://seekingalpha.com/news/4579135-medpace-sees-1_94b-backlog-conversion-over-next-12-months-as-cancellations-rise
- FOMC meets April 28–29 — Federal Reserve — official FOMC meeting calendars and information page. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
- DOJ dropped its Powell probe — The Washington Post — Justice Dept. drops criminal probe of Fed Chair Jerome Powell. https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2026/04/24/justice-department-fed-powell/
- Section 232 metals tariffs raised to 50% on full customs value — White & Case — United States modifies steel, aluminum, and copper Section 232 tariffs. https://www.whitecase.com/insight-alert/united-states-modifies-steel-aluminum-and-copper-section-232-tariffs
- 100% pharmaceutical tariff is set for September 29, 2026 — The White House — Adjusting Imports of Pharmaceuticals and Pharmaceutical Ingredients into the United States (April 2026 Proclamation). https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/04/adjusting-imports-of-pharmaceuticals-and-pharmaceutical-ingredients-into-the-united-states/
- Brent crude near $105 on Strait of Hormuz tension — CNBC — Brent oil tops $105 as tensions simmer in Strait of Hormuz, Israel threatens attacks. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/23/oil-price-iran-war-strait-hormuz.html
- entire semiconductor complex ran on Intel’s print — Stocktwits — AMD, MRVL, MU Stocks Hit 52-Week Highs. https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/amd-mrvl-mu-stocks-hit-52-week-highs-what-drove-the-chip-stocks-higher/cZBWY0zReTQ
- its longest winning streak in over 20 years — Stocktwits — coverage of AMD’s 13-day winning streak and broader chip rally. https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/amd-mrvl-mu-stocks-hit-52-week-highs-what-drove-the-chip-stocks-higher/cZBWY0zReTQ
- cancellations were not from acute biotech funding stress — The Motley Fool — Medpace (MEDP) Q1 2026 Earnings Transcript. https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/04/23/medpace-medp-q1-2026-earnings-transcript/
- revenue of $11.01 billion up 6.2%, guidance raised to $47.3–48.1 billion — The Motley Fool — Thermo Fisher (TMO) Q1 2026 Earnings Transcript. https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/04/23/thermo-fisher-tmo-q1-2026-earnings-transcript/
- revenue of $3.77 billion up 22%, remaining performance obligation of $27.7 billion up 25% — ServiceNow Newsroom — ServiceNow Reports First Quarter 2026 Financial Results. https://newsroom.servicenow.com/press-releases/details/2026/ServiceNow-Reports-First-Quarter-2026-Financial-Results/default.aspx
- The Iran-war disruption hit subscription growth — CNBC — ServiceNow stock sinks 14% as subscription revenue takes hit from Iran war. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/22/servicenow-now-earnings-q1-2026.html
- Revenue $2.10 billion +11%, FCF $562 million, guidance raised to $21.80–22.05 — GlobeNewswire — Roper Technologies announces first quarter financial results. https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/04/23/3279712/0/en/Roper-Technologies-announces-first-quarter-financial-results.html
- repurchased 6 million shares for $2.2 billion since November and added a fresh $3 billion authorization — Seeking Alpha — Roper projects 2026 DEPS of $21.80 to $22.05 while expanding $3B buyback authorization. https://seekingalpha.com/news/4578928-roper-projects-2026-deps-of-21_80-to-22_05-while-expanding-3b-buyback-authorization
- Revenue $22.4 billion +16%, energy gross margin a record 39.5%, AI5 chip taped out — Tesla Investor Relations — Q1 2026 Update PDF. https://assets-ir.tesla.com/tesla-contents/IR/TSLA-Q1-2026-Update.pdf
- committing $25 billion-plus in capex with negative free cash flow for the rest of 2026 — BigGo Finance — Tesla Q1 2026 Earnings Call: $25B+ CapEx push, free cash flow to turn negative. https://finance.biggo.com/news/US_TSLA_2026-04-22
- core PCE for February 2026 ran at 3.0% year-over-year — U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis — Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, Excluding Food and Energy. https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index-excluding-food-and-energy
- policy rate at 3.50–3.75% since the January meeting — Federal Reserve — January 28, 2026 FOMC statement. https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260128a.htm
- 10-year Treasury sits near 4.31% — ETF Database — Treasury Yields Snapshot: April 24, 2026. https://etfdb.com/fixed-income-content-hub/april-24-2026-treasury-yields-snapshot/
This post is for informational purposes only and is not investment, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is never a guarantee of future returns. ValueAligned Partners, LLC is a registered investment advisor.
