Berk on Value

Stock Research & Quality Compounders

Will AI Capex Save the S&P 500 from the 2026 Stagflation Trap?

The Oil Shock, the Stagflation Trap, and the Only Force Keeping Markets Afloat March 2026 | David Berkowitz, | ValueAligned Partners TL;DR Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, choking off 20% of global daily oil supply and sending WTI crude above $100 per barrel for the first time since 2022

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Stock Research & Quality Compounders

How the $8.8 Trillion AI Spending Boom and Iran Conflict Impact Your Portfolio

The American Spending Boom, the Great Rotation, and What the Iran Conflict Means for Your Portfolio TL;DR The U.S. is in the middle of a massive business investment cycle. Announced private and foreign investments have reached roughly $8.8 trillion, driven by artificial intelligence infrastructure and domestic manufacturing. The stock market

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Stock Research & Quality Compounders

The Agentic Playbook: Surviving the $830B Software Crash

Robert Smith’s Blueprint for the $1 Trillion Software Boom Five Filters to Separate Software Winners from Losers After the $830 Billion Crash TL;DR The software sector lost $830 billion in six trading days after Anthropic launched new AI tools that spooked investors about the future of paid software. Robert Smith,

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Markets & Investment Positioning

Why Market Volatility is the Price of Wealth Creation

Published: March 5, 2026 | Red Bank, NJ TL;DR $100,000 invested in the S&P 500 in January 1973 grew to over $24 million by year-end 2025, with dividends reinvested [OfficialData.org] S&P 500 cash dividends rose from roughly $14.89 per share in 1996 to $78.92 in 2025, a 430%+ increase [Standard

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Markets & Investment Positioning

Should You Sell Because of Iran? 95 Years of Data says, No.

Published: March 3, 2026 | Red Bank, NJ TL;DR The U.S. and Israel struck Iran on February 28, 2026, killing Supreme Leader Khamenei and 40+ senior officials. Stocks dipped, oil spiked, gold hit $5,400/oz. But 95 years of market data show that geopolitical crises produce buying opportunities—not reasons to sell.

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Stock Research & Quality Compounders

VAP January Newsletter

January 2026 Market Review: The Golden Age of the Digital Revolution Begins How AI deployment, semiconductor dominance, and a broad economic expansion are reshaping portfolios and the American economy TL;DR The ValueAligned Model Portfolio returned 2.2% in January 2026 vs. 1.4% for the S&P 500, driven by semiconductor and healthcare

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Stock Research & Quality Compounders

Can Microsoft’s Copilot Agents Justify a $3 Trillion MSFT Valuation?

Published: February 23, 2026. TL;DR Microsoft (MSFT) has dropped roughly 28% from its October 2025 all-time high of $555.45, trading near $397 as of February 20, 2026. The selloff reflects investor anxiety over $37.5 billion in quarterly AI capital spending and slow Copilot adoption (15 million paid seats against 450

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