- The S&P 500 gained 3.7% during Thanksgiving week, marking its best holiday performance since 2008 ( Seeking Alpha).
- Small caps led the rally, with the Russell 2000 climbing 5.6% as rate-cut expectations surged ( Investing.com).
- J.P. Morgan now expects a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in December, with futures pricing an 85% probability ( Bloomberg).
- Broadcom surged 18.5% on deepening AI partnerships with OpenAI and Google ( OpenAI).
- Weekly jobless claims fell to 216,000, the lowest level since April, signaling labor-market resilience ( Reuters).
Thanksgiving week just delivered the most substantial holiday rally since the 2008 financial crisis. The S&P 500 ripped 3.7% higher, the Dow added more than 3%, and the Nasdaq surged nearly 5% as investors shook off mid-month AI jitters ( Fortune). Small-cap stocks stole the show, with the Russell 2000 jumping 5.6% as rate-cut optimism returned with a vengeance ( Investing.com).
This matters for long-term investors because the rally wasn’t confined to the usual mega-cap suspects. Leadership broadened noticeably, with equal-weight indexes and cyclical sectors joining the party. When markets rally on broad participation rather than a handful of names, the foundation for future gains strengthens considerably.
If wealth is your goal, you can’t let a 3–5% swing in a week knock you off course. The math of compounding only works if you stay invested.
What the Major Indexes Did This Week
Here’s how the primary U.S. equity benchmarks performed through Friday’s close on November 28.
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) finished at $683.39, up 3.7% for the week and 17.6% year-to-date. The S&P 500 tracks the 500 largest U.S. companies by market capitalization and serves as the most widely referenced benchmark for American equities ( Yahoo Finance).
The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), which tracks the Nasdaq-100, closed at $619.25 after rallying 5.0% for the week. Despite the surge, QQQ remains down 1.6% for November, reflecting the mid-month shake-out in high-expectation AI names like Nvidia ( MarketWatch).
The real story was small caps. The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) closed at $248.75, up 5.6% on the week and 13.5% year-to-date. That outperformance signals an important trend: when the Federal Reserve pivots toward easier policy, smaller companies with floating-rate debt and shorter financing cycles tend to benefit disproportionately ( CME Group).
Wall Street wants you to believe the game is about timing your exposure to QQQ, SPY, or small caps. The reality is simpler: if wealth is your goal, broad participation like this strengthens the foundation under your existing equity ownership.
Sector Performance Tells the Real Story
Technology and Consumer Discretionary led the offense this week. The Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK) gained 4.8%, powered by a rebound in AI infrastructure names and renewed optimism about big platform plays like Alphabet and Broadcom. Consumer Discretionary (XLY) rallied 4.9% as holiday shopping data came in stronger than feared.
Health Care (XLV) quietly delivered another standout month with gains of 9.5% for November and 16.1% year-to-date. This sector has become a destination for investors seeking growth without stratospheric AI valuations. Merck’s cancer franchise and Eli Lilly’s obesity drugs continue to generate reliable cash flows that compound year after year.
Financials (XLF) and Real Estate (XLRE) both caught bids as falling long-term yields and rising rate-cut expectations eased pressure on interest-sensitive business models. When the yield curve stabilizes and credit stress recedes, these sectors breathe easier ( Reuters).
Materials (XLB) and Industrials (XLI) remain positive for the year but had a choppy November. Tariff headlines, China’s weak manufacturing data showing contraction for an eighth straight month, and continued uncertainty around global demand weighed on cyclical names ( AP News).
The lesson here isn’t about picking the hot sector. It’s about owning great businesses across sectors that compound free cash flow through economic cycles. Everything else is noise.
The Week’s Biggest Winners Revealed Risk Appetite Is Back
Kohl’s (KSS) shocked everyone by surging approximately 40% after posting a surprise third-quarter profit of $0.10 per share, versus expectations for a $0.17 loss. The department store chain also raised its full-year outlook and named Michael Bender as permanent CEO after his successful interim stint ( Benzinga). With short interest exceeding 26% of the float, the earnings beat triggered a classic short squeeze, sending shares into orbit.
Bloom Energy (BE) continued its reputation as a high-beta clean-energy play, rallying on renewed interest in its solid-oxide fuel cell systems for data centers. Earlier this month, the company raised $2.2 billion via convertible notes to expand its fuel-cell and hydrogen development capabilities ( Yahoo Finance).
Broadcom (AVGO) was the star of the AI infrastructure trade, gaining 18.5% for the week. The semiconductor giant benefited from two powerful narratives: first, the market’s rotation back to “more than just GPUs” after mid-month volatility punished Nvidia’s ecosystem. Second, Broadcom’s 10-gigawatt custom AI accelerator partnership with OpenAI, announced in October, continues to generate investor enthusiasm ( OpenAI). Goldman Sachs recently raised its price target on AVGO to $435, citing AI revenue visibility extending through 2026 ( TechStock²).
Reddit (RDDT) pushed into elite territory with a Relative Strength rating crossing 90, reflecting triple-digit earnings growth and continued enthusiasm for its AI-training data licensing deals ( Investor’s Business Daily).
SoFi Technologies (SOFI) rallied as evidence mounted that large institutions, including Quadrature, Schwab, and Legal & General continue to accumulate shares. Raised guidance for 2025 revenue, EBITDA, and EPS reinforced the narrative that SoFi has outgrown its student-loan origins and evolved into a profitable fintech platform ( TechStock²).
These moves reveal something important about market psychology. Investors are willing to reward turnarounds, high-growth platforms, and critical AI infrastructure when macro fear steps back. Risk appetite is alive and well.
The Losers Remind Us: Expectations Matter
Tilray (TLRY) announced a 1-for-10 reverse stock split, which is often a red flag signaling pressure to maintain listing requirements with the exchange. Combined with new U.S. legislation effectively re-criminalizing certain hemp-derived THC products, cannabis investors headed for the exits ( Investopedia).
Zscaler (ZS) actually reported strong revenue and ARR growth but guided in a way that raised questions about near-term profitability. When a stock has rallied as much as Zscaler this year, anything short of perfection triggers profit-taking ( Investor’s Business Daily).
Deere (DE) beat on Q4 results but guided below Street expectations for fiscal 2026, essentially telling investors the agricultural downturn hasn’t bottomed. Tariff headwinds and weaker demand for big-ticket farm equipment weighed on sentiment ( Reuters).
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) continued suffering from “too much, too fast” expectations in AI servers. The company missed earnings targets, saw pressure on gross margins, and guided more cautiously on EPS. Even AI hardware has cycles, and this week was a reminder of that reality.
The message is consistent across these names: markets remain ruthless toward high-expectation stories that even slightly disappoint. Long-term owners of real businesses can use that volatility to their advantage rather than fearing it.
The Federal Reserve Is About to Pivot
Markets spent most of November debating the timing of the next Fed cut. That debate is now largely settled.
J.P. Morgan shifted its base case to a 25-basis-point rate cut in December, reversing its earlier call that policymakers would hold until January. The shift followed comments from New York Fed President John Williams, who hinted strongly at an earlier move ( Bloomberg). Fed funds futures now price roughly an 85% chance of a December cut, with another move expected early in 2026 if inflation continues to behave ( Reuters).
The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, released in late November, described economic activity as largely unchanged, with a slight decline in employment and softer consumer spending outside high-income demographics. That data gave policymakers additional cover to proceed with easing ( FinancialContent).
Lower policy rates influence your portfolio in three concrete ways. First, discount rates decline, supporting higher valuations for long-duration cash flows, such as those generated by software, semiconductors, and high-quality compounders. Second, rate-sensitive sectors like Financials, Real Estate, and Utilities breathe easier as the yield curve stabilizes. Third, small caps and leveraged businesses benefit from cheaper refinancing opportunities, which partly explains the Russell 2000’s 5.6% weekly surge.
Wall Street wants you to believe you need to guess the exact meeting and basis-point number. Long-term owners need only recognize the direction of travel: policy has clearly pivoted from fighting inflation at all costs to avoiding an economic break.
The Labor Market Shows Surprising Resilience
Initial jobless claims fell to 216,000 for the week ending November 22, the lowest level since April. Economists had expected claims to rise to 225,000, making the drop both unexpected and meaningful ( Reuters).
Continuing claims ticked up to approximately 1.96 million, pointing to what economists describe as a “low-hire, low-fire” labor market. Companies aren’t aggressively adding headcount, but they’re also not letting existing workers go. That equilibrium supports consumer spending without creating the kind of wage-price spiral that would force the Fed to keep rates elevated ( AP News).
September’s Consumer Price Index ran at 3.0% year-over-year, with core inflation also around 3%. That’s a touch hot but not accelerating. The Fed’s preferred PCE inflation measure is running near 2.1% every quarter, suggesting underlying price pressures are moderating even if headline numbers wobble.
Investors interpreted this mix as slow but not broken growth, along with easing inflation. That’s precisely the environment that supports equities, especially when valuations are already rich.
Geopolitical and Global Factors Create Background Noise
Global events this week were less about new crises and more about slow-burn shifts that matter over years, not days.
China’s manufacturing PMI stayed in contraction for an eighth straight month at 49.2, despite a tariff truce and incremental policy support. Global goods demand remains lukewarm, and China’s property hangover continues to drag on economic momentum ( AP News).
The U.S. extended tariff exclusions on a range of Chinese industrial and medical imports while both sides agreed to maintain truce-level tariffs for an additional year ( Reuters). That provides some near-term relief for U.S. manufacturers and medical suppliers.
OPEC+ chose to hold oil production steady through early 2026 while reaffirming existing cuts of roughly 3% of global demand. The decision aims to keep markets balanced rather than chasing higher prices ( Reuters).
For your portfolio, these developments reinforce several long-term themes. Supply chains will continue re-routing toward friend-shoring and reshoring, which supports industrial automation, logistics, and select U.S. manufacturing. Critical technologies like AI semiconductors, defense electronics, and energy infrastructure remain strategic and likely to enjoy policy tailwinds even when valuations wobble.
Your ValueAligned Portfolio Participated in the Rally
Now to the core: how your ValueAligned Portfolio performed this week.
Broadcom (AVGO) led the way with an 18.5% weekly gain, closing at $402.96. The stock is now up 75.1% year-to-date. What drove the move? The market’s AI narrative shifted back to recognizing that the AI build-out requires more than just GPUs. Broadcom designs custom accelerators and networking solutions that hyperscalers like Google and OpenAI depend on for their infrastructure. The company’s 10-gigawatt partnership with OpenAI positions it as a foundational layer of the AI economy for years to come ( Broadcom Investor Relations).
This week’s spike doesn’t change the long-term thesis. It merely accelerates some of the return that would otherwise arrive over years. Broadcom’s value comes from take-or-pay style contracts, sticky software revenue, and structural demand for bandwidth and accelerators.
Tesla (TSLA) rallied 10.0% for the week to close at $430.17. Shares remain slightly negative for November and only mid-single digits positive year-to-date. The rebound came as part of the broader move in growth and EV-related names after a difficult stretch earlier this year. No single blockbuster announcement hit this week, but the market continued digesting Tesla’s ongoing push in robotaxis, humanoid robotics, and energy storage. Lower-rate expectations improved sentiment for long-duration, optionality-heavy stories.
Ownership of Tesla is about the option value of multiple platforms built on top of manufacturing scale, not about guessing next quarter’s delivery number.
ASML (ASML) gained 9.7% to close at $1,060. The Dutch company holds a monopolistic position in EUV lithography machines, which are essential for producing the advanced chips used in AI, high-end smartphones, and data centers ( RBC Wealth Management). The AI-infrastructure rebound refocused attention on the physical constraints of chip supply. If you want advanced nodes, you need ASML machines. Nothing fundamental changed this week; the market simply remembered that scarce, irreplaceable equipment providers deserve premium multiples.
Merck (MRK) delivered 7.2% for the week, 21.9% for November, and 8.4% year-to-date plus dividends. Health care caught a strong bid as investors sought growth with resilience in a world of wobbly AI multiples. Merck continues benefiting from expanding indications for Keytruda, its blockbuster immuno-oncology drug, reinforcing the longevity of its cancer franchise.
Alphabet (GOOGL) gained 6.9% for the week to close at $320.18, bringing year-to-date gains to 69.7%. The market rotated toward perceived AI platform winners like Google with its Gemini models and TPU accelerators over pure hardware plays. Strong advertising trends plus continued cloud growth reinforced the idea that Alphabet is monetizing AI across multiple revenue streams, not just as a science project ( MarketWatch).
The Laggards Offer Perspective, Not Panic
Copart (CPRT) fell 4.3% for the week and is down 32.1% year-to-date. The salvage auction operator reported solid revenue growth earlier this year but flagged tougher comparisons and margin pressures as used-car prices normalized from post-pandemic extremes. The salvage auction model remains asset-light, data-rich, and globally scalable. Short-term price compression reflects valuation resetting, not a broken business.
Nvidia (NVDA) slipped 1.1% for the week and is down 12.6% in November, though shares remain up 31.8% year-to-date. The stock sold off after reports that Meta is in discussions to purchase billions of dollars worth of Google’s tensor processing units, raising questions about Nvidia’s near-monopoly on AI accelerators ( CNBC). Nvidia’s Q3 results were stunning: revenue hit $57 billion, up 62% year-over-year, with data-center revenue of $51.2 billion ( TechStock²).
The debate has shifted from “does AI exist?” to “how much of the AI dollar does Nvidia capture versus others?” That’s exactly the kind of argument you want to own through rather than trade around.
Accenture (ACN) lost 0.7% for the week and is down 27.5% year-to-date. Earlier in 2025, the consulting giant reported mixed results as clients elongated sales cycles and delayed discretionary projects. The stock has spent most of the year de-rating amid investor concerns about near-term growth. But enterprises still need help integrating AI, cleaning data, and upgrading legacy systems. Accenture remains one of the few global platforms capable of delivering that at scale. Current price weakness appears to be cyclical hesitation, not a secular decline.
Kinsale Capital (KNSL) was flat for the week but down 3.6% in November and 17.1% year-to-date. The specialty insurer has become more cautious in investors’ eyes after a strong multi-year run in pricing and margins. Any hint that rate increases are slowing or catastrophe losses are normalizing, tends to hit valuations first. Underwriting discipline doesn’t show up in a single quarter; it compounds capital over long horizons.
Medpace (MEDP) barely moved, gaining 0.1% for the week. Shares are up 78.3% year-to-date after strong double-digit revenue and earnings growth. A quiet week after a near-80% year is not a red flag. It’s simply the market letting some steam out.
What This Week Actually Taught Us
Step back from the tick-by-tick movements and three big takeaways emerge.
First, the market just staged a robust, broad-based rebound. Large caps, small caps, tech, and cyclicals all participated. This was the strongest Thanksgiving week since 2008, and the breadth of participation matters more than the headline number ( Seeking Alpha).
Second, AI is maturing from a one-way trade into a genuine stock-picker’s market. You saw Broadcom, Alphabet, and ASML rewarded while Nvidia, Super Micro, and Zscaler struggled. That’s precisely the environment where owning specific high-quality businesses beats owning hype.
Third, macro is shifting from “how high do rates go?” to “how gentle will the landing be?” Inflation sits near 3%. Jobless claims remain low, but hiring is slower. The Fed is widely expected to cut in December. For a long-term owner, that combination is constructive—not because every week will be up, but because policy is no longer fighting your equity ownership as directly as it did in 2022–2023.
Your Action Plan for December
Stay the course. Use weeks like this to review your plan, not to chase what just went up. If you’re unsure whether your current allocation matches your goals and risk tolerance, schedule a call with your advisor, walk through the businesses you own, and make sure your plan is built to survive the next decade rather than just the next week.
You’re not trying to beat traders. You’re trying to own the future cash flows of great companies long enough for the math of compounding to do the heavy lifting.
This isn’t just paperwork. This is your legacy.
Endnotes
- Seeking Alpha – Wall Street posts best Thanksgiving week performance since 2008
- Fortune – Stock market outlook: analysts see the S&P 500 hitting 8000 next year
https://fortune.com/2025/11/29/stock-market-outlook-santa-claus-rally-sp500-forecast-8000-2026/ - Investing.com – 8 Undervalued Small Caps Positioned to Lead as the Russell 2000 Breaks Out
https://www.investing.com/analysis/8-undervalued-small-caps-positioned-to-lead-as-the-russell-2000-breaks-out-200670905 - Bloomberg – JPMorgan Flips Forecast, Sees Fed Cutting Rates in December
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-26/jpmorgan-flips-forecast-sees-fed-cutting-rates-in-december - Reuters – JP Morgan shifts outlook on Fed rate cut to December
https://www.reuters.com/business/jp-morgan-shifts-outlook-fed-rate-cut-december-2025-11-27/ - OpenAI – OpenAI and Broadcom announce strategic collaboration to deploy 10 gigawatts of custom AI accelerators
https://openai.com/index/openai-and-broadcom-announce-strategic-collaboration/ - Broadcom Investor Relations – OpenAI partnership announcement
https://investors.broadcom.com/news-releases/news-release-details/openai-and-broadcom-announce-strategic-collaboration-deploy-10 - TechStock² – Broadcom (AVGO) Stock on November 29, 2025: AI Megadeals, Goldman’s $435 Target
https://ts2.tech/en/broadcom-avgo-stock-on-november-29-2025-ai-megadeals-goldmans-435-target-and-a-gemini-3-fueled-rally/ - Yahoo Finance – SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) Stock Price
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/ - MarketWatch – As Alphabet’s stock rises and Nvidia’s pulls back, investors might be missing the point on AI
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-alphabets-stock-rises-and-nvidias-pulls-back-investors-might-be-missing-the-point-on-ai-68fafec7 - CME Group – Are U.S. Small Caps Undervalued Relative to Larger S&P 500 Peers?
https://www.cmegroup.com/insights/economic-research/2025/are-us-small-caps-undervalued-relative-to-larger-sp-500-peers.html - AP News – China’s factory activity contracts for 8th month in November
https://apnews.com/article/c8b0e57bfa20d26447865db4a6fecaa5 - Reuters – US extends tariff exclusions on some Chinese industrial goods
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/us-extends-tariff-exclusions-related-china-tech-transfer-probe-2025-11-26/ - Reuters – OPEC+ holds oil output steady
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/opec-set-hold-oil-output-policy-steady-sunday-sources-say-2025-11-29/ - Reuters – US weekly jobless claims at seven-month low
https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2025/nov/26/us-weekly-jobless-claims-at-seven-month-low-as-lay/ - AP News – Fewer Americans sought unemployment benefits last week
https://apnews.com/article/a902e9d8737c0712c2854be10f8586c1 - Benzinga – Short Squeeze And Earnings: Why Kohl’s Stock Spiked Today
https://www.benzinga.com/markets/earnings/25/11/49060223/new-ceo-appointment-outlook-hike-fuels-kohls-short-squeeze - Yahoo Finance – Bloom Energy Jumps 8% on Bargain-Hunting
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bloom-energy-jumps-8-bargain-120915221.html - Investor’s Business Daily – Reddit Joins Elite Club Of Stocks With RS Ratings Over 90
https://www.investors.com/ibd-data-stories/reddit-joins-elite-club-of-stocks-with-rs-ratings-over-90/ - TechStock² – SoFi Stock Today, November 28, 2025
https://ts2.tech/en/sofi-stock-today-november-28-2025-sofi-rises-as-institutions-pile-in-and-crypto-bet-expands/ - Investopedia – Tilray Plunges Ahead of 1-for-10 Reverse Stock Split
https://www.investopedia.com/tilray-plunges-ahead-of-1-for-10-reverse-stock-split-here-is-what-you-need-to-know-tlry-11858661 - Investor’s Business Daily – Zscaler Stock Slides Despite Cybersecurity Firm Posting Earnings Beat
https://www.investors.com/news/technology/zscaler-stock-ai-cybersecurity-earnings-oct-2025/ - Reuters – Deere forecasts weak annual profit on tariff hit
https://www.reuters.com/business/deeres-fourth-quarter-profit-falls-2025-11-26/ - CNBC – Nvidia stock falls on report Meta will use Google AI chips
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/25/nvidia-shares-today-google-meta-ai-chip-report.html - TechStock² – Nvidia (NVDA) Stock on November 30, 2025: AI King, November Sell-Off
https://ts2.tech/en/nvidia-nvda-stock-on-november-30-2025-ai-king-november-sell-off-enron-memo-and-google-tpu-shock-what-investors-need-to-know/ - RBC Wealth Management – Focus on earnings season
https://www.rbcwealthmanagement.com/en-eu/insights/focus-on-earnings-season - FinancialContent – JPMorgan Chase Urges December Fed Rate Cut
https://markets.financialcontent.com/stocks/article/marketminute-2025-11-28-jpmorgan-chase-urges-december-fed-rate-cut-a-pivotal-shift-for-monetary-policy-and-market-expectations
